GEOGRAPHY:

Economically-depressed towns in the United States Rocky Mountains sometimes try to revitalize themselves through tourism. Ski resorts can be an attractive possibility, in a chase after the roughly twenty million ski tourists visiting the Rocky Mountains every year, who bring in hundreds of millions of dollars and tens of thousands of jobs to local economies.

However, such development can hurt a fragile local environment, and may send the cost of living through the roof. The latter will prevent essential workers with low incomes (e.g. police officers and hotel staff) from living in the community; think of Vail in Colorado and Jackson Hole in Woyming.

Jordan Silberman and Peter Rees (University of Delaware, United States) are helping small communities prepare for the consequences of such development. They have scientifically identified likely locations for future ski resorts, which will enable city planners to anticipate development and act accordingly rather than rush through late and insufficient solutions.

Defining the typical Rocky Mountains ski resort.

The scientists' model region includes the Rocky Mountains of Montana, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. Currently unpopulated regions were not considered.

They first had to define a "ski resort." To arrive at a standard definition, they identified 85 currently-established Rocky Mountains ski resorts, and considered their proximity to National Forest land, the amount of seasonal snowfall, accessibility, and the length of the ski season.

Proximity to National Forest land was straightforward to quantitate. The scientists found that 65% of the ski resorts bordered National Forest land, and most of the resorts were within three-fourths of a mile from them.

For seasonal snowfall, they conservatively considered the lowest expected average amount of snowfall per monthly period between the months of October and May, as obtained from the Climate Atlas of the Contiguous United States. Other data sources were variable and challenging to incorporate into a rigorous scientific evaluation.

Skiers also value snow "quality," which is dependent on humidity and many other factors. However, the scientists judged these too difficult to rigorously quantitate over a large geographic area.

Accessibility was judged by the ski resorts' proximity to the nearest airport (national and international visitors), and the nearest cities of 10,000 (local visitors) and 50,000 (regional visitors). This data was obtained from (1) the National Atlas of the United States and US Geological Survey and (2) ESRI Cities 2000 index.

The scientists found that the average expected visitor driving time was 55 minutes from the closest airport, 77 minutes from the closest city of 10,000, and 123 minutes from the closest city of 50,000. They assumed each group to contribute one-third of the ski resort visitors; this is an unrealistic estimation, but data is not available except in isolated instances that cannot be generalized region-wide.

The length of the ski season was based on the average daily temperature for each day below freezing, obtained from the Climate Atlas of the Contiguous United States, ignoring the possibility of uncertain global warming effects. Many other factors contribute to the length of the ski season, e.g. National Forest restrictions and wind patterns, but the scientists again judged them too difficult to rigorously quantitate over a large geographic area.

Predicting future Rocky Mountains ski resorts.

The scientists identified Dayton, a town Wyoming of roughly 700 people and nearly 4000 feet in elevation, as the closest in conditions observed for a typical Rocky Mountains ski resort. A stroll over to the town website shows their direct appeal to oudoor activities already, notably the yearly Bighorn Mountain Run (up to 100 miles -- I can ride a bicycle that far, but I personally can't even imagine running that far).

However, there is no hotel in town, no bank, and only a corner grocery store. This may be sufficient for a small rural community, but the city would need extensive commercial development if it were to develop a typical Rocky Mountains ski resort.

The scientists further identified Island Park (Idaho), Red Feather Lakes (Colorado), West Yellowstone (Montana), and Etna (Wyoming) as possible locations for future ski resorts. However, similarly to Dayton, substantial infrastructure upgrades would be needed, and serious strain on water resources and other environmental challenges would be unavoidable.

Implications.

Several towns in the United States Rocky Mountains have been identified that closely match the four conditions (proximity to National Forest land, the amount of seasonal snowfall, accessibility, and the length of the ski season) observed in a typical ski resort in this region of the United States. None of them would be able to sustainably accommodate the expected visitors, in their current state.

These communities should keep this caution in mind if they wish to use ski tourism to enhance their economies. Silberman and Rees' approach will also be useful for predicting sustainable ski tourism management in other regions of the world beyond the Rocky Mountains.

for more information:
Silberman, J. A., & Rees, P. W. (2010). Reinventing mountain settlements: A GIS model for identifying possible ski towns in the U.S. Rocky Mountains Applied Geography, 30 (1), 36-49 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2009.10.005